2010

Authors

  • L. Zhang L. Zhang
  • Z. Zuo Z. Zuo
  • G. Ye G. Ye
  • Dong-Sheng Jeng Dong-Sheng Jeng
  • J. Wang J. Wang

A key issue in assessment of rainfall-induced slope failure is a reliable evaluation of pore water pressure distribution and its variations during rainstorm, which in turn requires accurate estimation of soil hydraulic parameters. In this study, the uncertainties of soil hydraulic parameters and their effects on slope stability prediction are evaluated, within the Bayesian framework, using the field measured temporal pore-water pressure data. The probabilistic back alysis and parameter uncertainty estimation is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. A case study of a tural terrain site is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The 95% total uncertainty bounds for the calibration period are relatively rrow, indicating an overall good performance of the infiltration model for the calibration period. The posterior uncertainty bounds of slope safety factors are much rrower than the prior ones, implying that the reduction of uncertainty in soil hydraulic parameters significantly reduces the uncertainty of slope stability.